Wordtracker Predicted Searches And Real Traffic For #1 In Google

Posted on November 14, 2007 
Filed Under SEO

One of great things about the free keyword tool from Wordtracker is that it gives you a prediction of how many searches per day there are for a certain keyword.

But have you ever wondered how many visitors you REALLY get if you rank #1 in Google for that keyword?

Well, I wanted to know that many times and now I finally rank number 1 in Google for a couple high traffic keywords for my vacuum site and I can show you some numbers.

Here are my rankings for top 14 keywords that I see in my Google webmasters tools:

Google webmasters tool rankings

Here’s what Wordtracker tells me today about the predicted daily searches:

Wordtracker predicted searches

As you can see here Google is my main referrer:

Google referrer

And here’s how much traffic I got so far in November (from 1st to 13th) for certain keywords:

Searched keywords

So let’s check the predicted Wordtracker searches per day and how much traffic you can get if you rank nr. 1 in Google for a certain keyword:

Keyword Wordtracker predicted Real daily traffic Percentage of traffic
vacuum cleaners 871 429 49,3 %
vacuum cleaner reviews 373 196 52,5 %
vacuum cleaner ratings 380 90 23,7 %
best vacuum cleaners 197 78 39,6 %
best vacuum cleaner 139 100 71,9 %
Averages 1960 893 45,5 %



As you are probably aware, Wordtracker gathers data from Dogpile and Metacrawler which account to only 0.65 – 0.70% searches from the search engines.

So Wordtracker uses their database and the percentage of their searches on the Internet to predict how many real searches are there on the web.

As you can see, you can expect almost 50% of predicted daily searches according to Wordtracker if you manage to get to number one ranking in Google for a certain keyword.

If your website ranks #1 in Google for a certain keyword with more than 20 predicted searches according to Wordtracker, please share your numbers below. (If you want to protect your keyword, just use WD searches and real daily traffic.)

Example:

Tennis backhand 24 WD 15 visitors 62,5%

Update: I came across a post on Seo Scoop about Comparing Traffic From Google, Yahoo and MSN when ranking #1 in all of them for the same keyword. Google of course has a big lead.

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Comments

19 Responses to “Wordtracker Predicted Searches And Real Traffic For #1 In Google”

  1. Thomas Sinfield on November 18th, 2007 2:54 am

    What a great case study! I always wondered how accurate those tools were.

    [Reply]

  2. Tomaz on November 18th, 2007 8:38 pm

    Hey Thomas,

    Thanks for stopping by. Yes, I wondered that too. I wanted to know what kind of traffic I can expect if I rank high for a certain keyword. By the way, certain statistics show that I you rank #1 you get 3,5x times the traffic compared to #2!

    [Reply]

  3. Drew Stauffer on November 20th, 2007 9:40 am

    Great study. Did you by any chance check any of these results with Keyword Discovery? Since the results vary so much between WD and KD, I wonder how they play out.

    [Reply]

  4. Tomaz on November 20th, 2007 9:40 pm

    Hi Drew,

    Good idea. I went to the free KD search http://www.keyworddiscovery.com/search.html and typed in vacuum cleaners. The keyword was searched 34434 times in the last 12 months, so that’s around 94 searches per day. My real daily traffic for that keyword is 429 visitors so that tells me that KD is really off.

    Same goes for vacuum cleaner reviews – 1280 per year, which is 3,5 per day. ;) Real traffic on my site is 196 visitors per day for that keyword.

    [Reply]

  5. Tolits Bana on November 24th, 2007 8:18 pm

    For your keyword research try using KeywordSpy – a keyword research technology that will help you know what keywords your competitors are using and how it generates money for them, you can use those keywords to drive traffic to your site and give your business the exposure it needs. It offers Free trials.

    It goes with a ClickBank Affiliates Search Engine where you can see the actual market landscape at ClickBank.

    [Reply]

  6. ALEX NEWELL on November 25th, 2007 11:00 am

    Thanks so much for sharing your data, much appreciated. It is a big surprise to me to see less traffic than WT indicated. Mostly people seem to think that real traffic is a multiple of Wordtracker!

    I’d be interested to hear what Wordtracker would say about this…

    [Reply]

  7. Tomaz on November 25th, 2007 8:25 pm

    Hi Alex,

    I think that Wordtracker numbers (above 20 searches per day) are pretty accurate. Wordtracker predicts the number of searches across ALL search engines and since I get around 50% of traffic predicted by WD and almost all my traffic is from Google, then WD is very accurate. Google holds around 50-60% of all searches on the Internet so the other 50% are from Yahoo, MSN and others from which I get almost no traffic.

    If I were to hold #1 rankings in Google, Yahoo and MSN for the keyword vacuum cleaners, then I assume it would be pretty close to what WD predicts.

    [Reply]

  8. Tomaz on November 25th, 2007 8:27 pm

    Hi Tolits,

    Thanks for stopping by and sharing the link to KeywordSpy. I came across it a couple of times but never dug deep into it.

    [Reply]

  9. Jim on November 26th, 2007 5:08 am

    Good information. Could you please tell me what the % column represents that you get in GG webmasters tools?

    Also, did you work out the number of visitors you actually got for keywords where you ranked lower than no. 1? I’d be curious to see what the actual drop off is for positions 2,3,4 etc are down to the 10th position.

    [Reply]

  10. Dan Thies on November 26th, 2007 1:31 pm

    @ Alex, Wordtracker is trying to predict the # of searches, not the amount of traffic any particular site will get. Would you expect to get 100% click-through at the #1 spot? When I look at the likely click-through rate, it looks like Wordtracker did quite well.

    [Reply]

  11. Tomaz on November 26th, 2007 7:31 pm

    Hi Jim,

    The % represents the percentage of visitors that found my site through that keyword. Which means, that 19% of all visitors that my website receives (through Google search!) come from the keyword vacuum cleaners. ;) (11% of all visitors come from the keyword dyson vacuum cleaners and so on)

    I haven’t worked out the #2 and lower numbers but here’s a post from Self Made Minds that shows the drop off.

    As you’ll see, the #1 spot receives around 42% of all clicks.

    [Reply]

  12. Jim on November 26th, 2007 10:57 pm

    Tomaz,

    I went to that link and found their stats were nearly exactly what came up with another article I had booked earlier with a total of 19,434,546 clickthroughs. You can read it here:
    http://www.redcardinal.ie/search-engine-optimisation/12-08-2006/clickthrough-analysis-of-aol-datatgz/

    [Reply]

    Tomaz Reply:

    Thanks Jim,

    Yes, that’s the AOL data that shares the info. Very useful, thanks for the link!

    [Reply]

  13. Jerrick on December 27th, 2007 1:20 am

    Hi Tomaz,

    Just wondering how you derived the real daily traffic column for each single keywords since the traffict stats is in page views? Btw did you happen to add up msn + yahoo + google for the keyword real daily traffic?

    For e.g you say your real traffic is 429 for vacuum cleaners, was wondering how u managed to sieve out this exact figure.

    Thanks
    Jerrick

    [Reply]

    Tomaz Reply:

    Jerrick,

    There is one picture above which shows for which keywords my site was found and with how many searches. It says “Top 100 of 4055 Total Keywords”.

    There you see in #1 keyword vacuum cleaners with 5574 searches. The numbers are for 13 days in November so I divided 5574 searches in 13 days and got 429 searches per day for that keyword.

    [Reply]

  14. Wendell Waldron on October 17th, 2009 10:13 am

    I disagree with your study strongly. I manage several websites and I’ve used Wordtracker for over nine years.

    I have no shortage of search terms predicted by Wordtracker that represent less than 40% of the client’s actual traffic. You’ve used some convenient examples but the reality is that Wordtracker in the majority of the cases gives a low predict value.

    For example, I have a client that ranks number 1 in the United States for a specific search term. According to Wordtracker, the predict number is 339. My client’s website receives over 578 referrals every day for the term. 85% of that traffic comes from the United States. The client doesn’t at this point doens’t rank well within Australia and the UK so I can only imagine how high that value will climb when she begins to rank high in Google’s other country databases.

    Use multiple research tools and don’t rely on the Wordracker predict module. It’s inaccurate.

    [Reply]

    Tomaz Reply:

    Thanks for sharing, Wendell.

    You’ve used some convenient examples…

    How about you? ;)

    [Reply]

  15. Wendell Waldron on October 17th, 2009 11:54 am

    LOL! Absolutely I used some examples that were available to me.

    My point is that predict value isn’t necessarily high in every situation.

    For every example that shows that Wordtracker over estimated the predict number, there would also be an example of Wordtracker grosly underestemating the predict value.

    It’s been my experience that there is really no dependable indicator of whether the predict number is low or comparitavely high.

    This is the main reason why our office uses Trellian, Wordtracker and the Google Keyword Tool. You’re not going to get an accurate predict number or KEI value but you are going to understand how certain terms compare to each other.

    Great information here, thanks.

    [Reply]

  16. Elena from Ask Women Net on July 9th, 2010 12:34 am

    Yes, very true. I figured out this on my own just two days ago and now you confirmed my findings. I am on the first page for askwomen. According to Wordtracker there are 26 daily searches for this keyword. I get 12.85 visitors a day in average for this keyword (note I am not first on the list, but I am in top 10).

    Another example “melancholic personality” – 2 searches a day only according to Wordtracker. I am on the first page of search results in Google. from 1st to 7th of July I had 7 visitors exactly, that is one visitor a day for this precise keyword. I sure receive a lot of people for long tail of keywords that includes this word combo.

    So, despite the numbers are much less, your formula still works for me too :).

    [Reply]

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